Record ocean temperature again, while warm El Niño is yet to come

Like the rest of the earth’s surface, the oceans are also warming due to the continued emission of greenhouse gases. Suddenly, climatic records are collapsing, it seems.

Where the sea ice around Antarctica bottomed out not so long ago, it is now the turn of the global ocean: the sea surface has never been warmer since was measured.

Usually, the sea surface temperature reaches its highest value in the second half of March. It’s the end of summer in the southern hemisphere, and there’s just more sea there. This is all the more remarkable as the sea surface temperature continues to rise in April. On average, the ocean surface is now 21.1 degrees.

More rain?

These higher ocean temperatures can affect the weather here, says RTL News meteorologist Maurice Middendorp. “Our weather often comes from the west. For example, many depressions cross the Atlantic Ocean before reaching us. Warmer seawater can cause more evaporation and therefore more rain when low pressure areas give us are coming.”

Here you can see how much the sea surface temperature deviates from the long-term average over the period 1991-2020:

The previous record was in early March 2016. It is no coincidence that this year was marked by a strong El Niño, as the relatively strong warming of sea water in the eastern part of the Pacific Ocean is called. . During El Nino a lot of heat from the deeper parts of the Pacific Ocean comes to the surface.

But we are barely out of the years of La Niña, the cold counterpart of El Niño. Hardly a time when one would expect a record heat.

Much warmer atmosphere

We are now slowly heading towards an El Niño, to expect meteorological service. The image with seawater temperatures shows an early start to that, says climatologist Gavin Schmidt at the Washington Post. The relatively warm sea water on the west coast of South America is a particular testimony to this.

If an El Niño does occur later this year, it will not only be noticeable in sea surface temperatures, but the atmosphere will also become much warmer. Chances are 2024 will be a record warm year, say Schmidt and his fellow scientists.