Many analysts concluded in 2016 and 2018 that Supreme Court politics helped Republicans by helping to motivate or consolidate conservative voters.
True or not, it is not clear which side benefits from the court vacancy, and after death, it can still be said today. Judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg. There is no way to know exactly what that is, but if you look closely at recent polls, including the new New York Times / Siena College studies, Joseph R. Biden Jr. provides reason to think that he may be overweight or overweight. More of an issue than President Trump.
What voters say in choosing the next judge
In the Times / Siana Polls Voters in Maine, North Carolina and Arizona on Friday wanted Mr Pitney to choose the next Supreme Court judge by 12 percentage points, 53 percent to 41 percent. In each of the three states, Mr. Biden, after all, led by a slightly broader difference in choosing the next justice.
Similarly, in a Fox News poll last week, voters across the country said Mr. Mr Biden relied on Trump – by seven points – to nominate the next Supreme Court judge. Mr. Mr Biden took a slightly broader lead on the issue than Trump did.
Appointing a Supreme Court judge somewhere between those who have been tested by the survey, on issues that are favorable or unfavorable to the two candidates. Rather than dealing with the corona virus or racial ties, Mr. This was a great issue for Trump, but Mr. For Fiden the economy or law is a much better issue than order.
So far this year, Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump has benefited when the national political dialogue focuses on their best issues. If this system exists and the most recent poll results are representative, it is unclear whether a candidate will benefit from focusing on the Supreme Court.
Looking at the results, Mr. Pitton suggests there may be some reversals among credible and low-voting voters. Voters who do not support a major party candidate or who may still change their mind, Mr. They thought Biden was the best at choosing the next justice by 18 points, ranging from 49 percent to 31 percent. Voters who said they were “almost certainly not” or “not very likely” to vote said they thought this was 52-23.
Of course, Mr. There is no guarantee that Biden will take a lead on this issue. If a popular candidate is expelled, Mr. It would be beneficial for Trump to stand on this issue. But another divisive fight over the Supreme Court could also prove to be a kind of exhausting, discriminatory conflict in which many different types of voters seek a more bipartisan approach to politics. Mr. This may be good news for Biden, who dictates which candidate will do a better job of uniting the United States.
Democrats care more about the Supreme Court than they did in 2016
There is a general opinion that the vacant Supreme Court created by the death of Antonin Scalia helped Republicans in the 2016 election by encouraging religious conservatives who are not fans of Mr. Trump. In fact, a Pew poll at the time found that Trump supporters preferred eight points more than Clinton supporters to call Supreme Court appointments the “most important” issue. The exit poll was even more blunt: 21 percent of voters said Supreme Court appointments were the most important issue, and they backed Hillary Clinton, Mr Trump on 56-41.
But this year, Pew Research says Democrats are more likely to say the Supreme Court is “very important” to their vote.
It’s not hard to see why a Supreme Court vacancy would have been more motivating for Republicans in 2016, but it is further encouraging for Democrats today. After all, Republicans feared they would lose a seat and the balance of court four years ago. This time, it’s the Democrats.
Voters thought the Senate should have held hearings on Merrick Garland
After Judge Scolia’s death in February 2016, the Republican Party’s decision not to hold hearings on President Obama’s nominee, Merrick Garland, left the seat vacant until the general election and next year.
Voter sentiment favored Judge Carland At the time. After that this is also true: a Marquette Legal Referendum In late 2019, between 73 percent and 27 percent of voters thought the Senate decision not to hold a hearing was a misdemeanor.
How voters will feel if President Trump appoints a Supreme Court judge is a very different matter. For one, it is very close to the election that Mr. Trump was less popular than President Obama at the time.
The unreasonableness of denying a trial to Judge Garland could provoke fierce opposition for a Republican candidate to receive a different treatment, rather than the continued support for granting a trial to a candidate in an election year.
The Republican platform is already motivated
Many believe there was a fight over Judge Brett Kavanagh Allegation of sexual harassment Nearly two years ago, it helped motivate conservative voters in 2018 and helped Republicans avoid a more decisive defeat in the midterm elections.
At that time there was some evidence to support it: Mr. Trump’s approval rating has increased by about 1.5 points since the start of the Cavanaugh trials until the midterm elections, according to FiveDirt. Polls at the time showed Republicans strengthening their support in conservative districts.
But today, Republicans are already motivated. After the Republican convention, Mr. Trump is already riding high: his approval rating is higher today than it was two years ago.
That is not to say that Republicans – or Democrats – cannot gain much power. But 2020 is not like 2018, when the Democrats entered the cheering edge at the heart of the campaign season, the Republicans were clearly upside down.