Europe’s struggle to have a second wave of the corona virus has reached a critical point.
This week, Europe overtook the United States in a key metric that calculates population size differences while monitoring the spread of the virus. The 27 countries of the European Union and the United Kingdom reported an average of 78,000 cases a day or 152 cases per million residents during the seven-day period ending October 12. During the same period the United States registered an average of 49,000 per day, about 150 per million residents.
This is the first time Europe has surpassed the United States since the virus peaked in the spring, when the disease spreads largely undetected due to the limited testing capabilities of countries. Europe has now reached a new stage The United States faced the end of June as infections rose from Florida to California.
Europe continues to follow the United States in daily average deaths per person. Over the same seven-day period, the United States recorded an average of 2 deaths per million residents per day, more than double the European average.
Both sides of the Atlantic increased trials in the summer, thus allowing nations to detect more events. But in many hotspots in Europe and the United States, the role of positive tests is increasing, indicating that pathogens could spread the virus faster than widespread testing programs.
Governments have taken targeted measures in an effort to control the virus without causing the economic pain that comes with nationwide locks. European leaders have broken statistics like specific cities, towns or youth.
However, that approach works against the cold math of growing cassettes. Countries including France, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium and the United Kingdom have reported more than 250 million new daily infections a day – more than the United States announced in late July.
“We seem to be at a critical juncture when it comes to infection numbers,” said Flavio Toxward, an economist at the University of Cambridge in the UK.
Winter is coming, and public health experts say governments need to catch up on the dangers of infectious or dangerous hospitals with sick patients. High case numbers increase the workload of contact tracers associated with seizing potential carriers and breaking transmission chains, interfering with efforts to control the spread.
Share your thoughts
Do you think Europe and the United States should impose tougher sanctions if cases continue to rise? Join the conversation below.
“What all countries are trying to do now is get into trouble, buy time to try to survive the winter. This means lowering the case numbers to allow their systems to function as they are now,” said Linda Balt, a professor of public health at the University of Edinburgh in the UK.
Health experts are also concerned about getting a place in the ratio of people who test positive for pathogens. The World Health Organization says countries need to carry out adequate tests to keep the share of positive results at 5% or less.
The share of recurrent corona virus tests in France rose to 9% at the end of September, three times higher than in the summer, according to data from the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention. In Spain, the positive rate reached 10%. In the UK at the beginning of October it was almost 3%.
Another symptom test case is missing: statistical modeling using a representative model of UK adults carried out by the country’s statistics agency estimates that between September 25 and October 1, about 17,200 people a day will be affected in the UK. The official daily number for that period averaged 9,500.
The Rise in cases Has begun to show in increased hospital admissions. The ECTC said in its latest monitoring report that in 19 European countries, including France, Spain and the United Kingdom, the number of people hospitalized with Covit-19 in early October was a quarter or more higher than that reached during the April peak of the epidemic.
Some health officials say this time they have detected previous cases — when they are less severe — and hospitals are ready to treat them.
Corona virus patients have also occupied 30 intensive care beds at La Paz Hospital in Madrid, which is one of the largest in Spain, says radiologist Daniel Bernabeu. However, the hospital has 120 complex care units, which are usually reserved for patients for postoperative recovery, which can be modified to suit the needs of Covid-19 cases. The hospital has a total of 220 corona virus patients.
The first wave of the virus “tsunami, it wiped us out,” said Dr. Bernabeu. “This second wave is like a wave.”
One of the main reasons for the increase in deaths in Europe, as it did in the spring, was the spread of the virus among the most vulnerable young people. Older generations with higher mortality rates were able to keep their distance.
However, there are signs that the dam between the young and the old is in trouble. A study led by Imperial College London estimated that three out of every UK resident over the age of 65 were infected with the virus in early October – an eight-fold increase from a month earlier. People between the ages of 18 and 24 were the most exposed, with 12 of the 1,000 believed to be affected. Data from English hospitals show that enrollment for Govt-19 is low, but is growing rapidly among those over 85 years of age.
Health officials blame the outrage of summer social activities for sowing the seeds of Europe’s resurgence. After spending limited spring in their homes, there were Europeans Unleashed for a summer of continental travel and excitement Without clear rules about social-distance. They congregated on the beach in the Atlantic and hid in illegal raves in Berlin and Paris.
Since then, governments have imposed new restrictions. France has closed liquor stores in Paris and other major cities and introduced a demand Wear masks Everywhere beyond the privacy of the home.
Spain declares state of emergency Last Friday, local authorities opposed the new restrictions in a move to allow the extension of partial locking in Madrid. The new measures – which will affect nearly 4.8 million people in the capital and nine surrounding cities – will allow them to travel in and out of Madrid only for essential purposes such as work and medical care.
In the UK, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the new three – tier restrictions for the UK on Monday. Strict measures have been imposed in the city of Liverpool where the virus is spreading fast, less stringent controls are being applied elsewhere.
Tom Wingfield, a physician for infectious diseases in Liverpool, said that with the increase in Govt-19 admissions, hospitals in his area are now being managed without any impact on routine surgery and other health care services. “It is not clear how long this situation will last as bed pressures are increasing and there is a long winter,” he said.
Maria Martinez of Madrid contributed to this article.
Copyright © 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All rights reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8