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On average, people give themselves a 29% chance of landing successfully. This is already a high percentage, according to the researchers. But it becomes even more striking: whoever watched for the first time a four-minute video in which two professional pilots land an airplane in a mountainous environment, gives themselves a 38% chance of landing without being killed.
Complicated activity
It’s weird, say it University of Waikato psychologists who conducted the research. At the same time, the 780 respondents were aware that flying is a complicated job: they give it a difficulty rating of 4.4 (on a scale of 5) and are well aware that professional pilots have years of training.
The scientists say their research shows that people “tend to overestimate their confidence in certain things” due to a “quick delusion”. Seeing images of an action, like landing a plane safely on the ground, makes them believe they are capable of accomplishing something they lack the skills for.
According to the researchers, this overestimation is rooted in “an alarming number of ordinary people”. They say that pride is a quality that can be useful in everyday life: many people draw strength from it to overcome challenges. At the same time, pride can be devastating when human lives are at stake.
Surprising contradiction
Scientists are particularly surprised by the contradiction that emerges from their findings. “On the one hand, people tell us: it takes a lot of experience to fly such a plane. On the other hand, they are convinced that they could possibly do it themselves.”
Less surprisingly, the study found that men were more likely to overestimate their skills than women.
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