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Former United States Vice President and current Democratic nominee Joe Biden gestured on December 7, 2015 in Kiev to present a report on the outcome of the talks with his Ukrainian president.
Sergei Subinsky | AFP | Getty Images
Despite some severe sanctions and harsh criticism, Russia is not at the top of US foreign policy priorities under President Donald Trump, and he appears to have a cordial relationship with his rival, Vladimir Putin.
However he acknowledged that their numbers were not enough to defeat Democrat candidate Joe Biden’s victory in the November 3 election.
At the very least, analysts expect Biden’s victory to increase tensions between Washington and Moscow and increase the likelihood of new sanctions on Russia.
The country has been operating under international sanctions against some key departments and Russian officials close to Putin for activities including the annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, its involvement in the US election in 2016 and its involvement in a nerve agent attack in the UK. 2018.
Mutual distrust
Andreas Durza, adviser to the Denio Intelligence Center and Eastern Europe, said Biden’s victory would enhance Atlantic relations between the United States and Europe and would see a “renewed US commitment to NATO” welcomed by Europe.
However he acknowledged that their numbers were not enough to defeat Lukashenko’s government, citing recent history of mutual mistrust and tense relations between the Kremlin and the US Democrats.
“In general, a Biden presidency will be detrimental to Moscow, and this will lead to further deterioration of bilateral relations in terms of rhetoric and substance. The Democratic nominee has long taken a tough stance against the administration of President Vladimir Putin,” Durza said in a statement on Friday.
US President Donald Trump (R) met with Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) on June 28, 2019, the first day of the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan.
Anatolic Agency | Anatolic Agency | Getty Images
“Meanwhile, the Kremlin’s hatred of Biden predates his vice presidency, especially in response to the 2014 Ukrainian crisis in which he imposed sanctions on Russia.”
A meaningful confrontation resolution in the Donbass region of Crimea and eastern Ukraine (there are two pro-Russian regions that have declared themselves republics) still excludes Moscow and Kiev, despite the efforts of Germany and France to come up with a lasting solution that both sides can do.
Dursa argued without a definitive process Conflict resolution in Donbass and Crimea – Biden was heavily involved as vice president in one region – “Moscow cannot be expected to ease any meaningful sanctions”, and the potential Biden presidency will lead to a more stringent implementation of existing measures.
He said the risk of new sanctions could also increase Allegations of Russian interference in the 2020 presidential election have been made.
Mutual interest
No new sanctions are likely to be imposed on Russia immediately, however, according to Timothy Ash, a senior emerging market strategist at Blu-ray Asset Management.
He said on Saturday, “I think the course of US-Russia relations will continue on this deteriorating path. I do not know whether to immediately expect additional ‘bent up’ sanctions on Russia.”
“I think all of Biden’s potential candidates for the presidency are very experienced and damn good. They do not want to impose sanctions on us. They want to be more proportionate and logical,” he said, “in order to ensure the strategic interests of the United States.” It is important for the United States to have a trade relationship with Russia. “
Under Biden’s presidency, the two sides need to “learn where they can tolerate each other and engage in certain areas of mutual interest, such as arms control – and strategic interests to reduce the risks of conflicting conflicts, for example in areas such as Ukraine, Belarus and Turkey.” Be part of, but only such a tool. “
New START
Weapons control However, both Russia-observers believe it could be a point of mutual interest and some reconciliation. As much as Biden has signaled, he said in 2019 that he would like to see an extension of the key US-Russian nuclear disarmament agreement known as the New Strategic Disarmament Agreement.
“Based on the latest reports from both sides, negotiations on a new Strategic Disarmament Agreement (START) are an area where progress can be expected if Biden is elected,” said Durza of Denio. “However, the timeline will be more challenging as the current contract expires on 5 February 2021.”
Russia itself acknowledges that arms control will be a positive change in Biden’s presidency. Earlier in October, Putin criticized what he called “sharp anti-Russian rhetoric” from Biden, but said he was encouraged by Biden’s comments on a new arms deal or new START expansion.
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