We asked scientists what the ommicron variant would do in the United States

To get a good idea of ​​how the ommicron variant of COVID-19 is spreading in the United States, take a look over the ocean. In the UK and South Africa – Two countries where the omicron variant is rapidly becoming more dominant than delta, or already is – Contamination rates are increasing, mainly because the variant is more transferable. While current evidence suggests that patients with omicron are less likely to be hospitalized or die, massive infection rates have put a strain on infrastructure in both countries.

Now that ommicron has reached the shores of the United States, it looks like we are in the early stages of what the above countries are currently experiencing. in one New York City, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 doubled in three days this week, with City Councilor Bill de Blasio attributing the rise to an ommicron variable. At a briefing Tuesday for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)Senior federal health officials told reporters the prevalence of the omicron variant increased sevenfold within a week.

While the increase may subside after spring, they added that if current trends continue, there could be a public health crisis as well. This will be especially true if the delta variant continues to wreak havoc and an influenza pandemic exacerbates the problem caused by a few strains of COVID-19. The first is already happening and the second is becoming more and more plausible, at least based on the timeline established by scientists for when the variable ommicron is likely to increase in the United States.

“Based on data from South Africa and Europe, we can expect a significant increase in the number of cases here in the United States in the coming weeks,” said Dr. Stephen Goldstein, professor at The Eccles Institute of Human Genetics at the University of Utah told Salon. by email. “It is possible that the peak in the number of cases may exceed the peak of last winter.”

dr. George Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, predicted that Omicron would become the dominant alternative in the United States within three to six months.

“It depends on the high infection rate, the large number of unvaccinated people and the sudden infection rate of people who have been fully vaccinated but not boosted,” Benjamin explained in writing. “Invasive injuries occur in fully immunized and stimulated people, but at a slower rate. “

The basic problem is that the ommicron variant is more portable than ever. When it comes to stopping a pandemic, few things epidemiologists fear more than a highly contagious insect.

dr. Russell Medford, director of the Center for Global Health Innovation and the Center for Global Health Crisis Coordination, told Salon via email that he expects the ommicron variant to be widespread in the United States, as is currently the case in the UK, because “the ommicron variant is more transferable. significantly from the delta.

The omicron variant is “more transmissible and will lead to a wave of new infections,” said Dr. Monica Gandhi, infectious disease physician and professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco, added: “There are now evidence that ommicron is less severe than previous strains ”. She added that what scientists do not know so far is “whether this is due to the increased cellular immunity of the population in December 2021 compared to a trait inherent in the strain that makes it less virulent. “.

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Besides transmissibility, the second biggest concern with omicron is the issue of vaccine resistance. Over the past six months, the prevalence of the delta variant has declined due to the number of Americans vaccinated – and although Delta has low resistance to the vaccine, most hospitalizations and deaths in the United States from COVID- 19 were among the non-vaccines. – vaccinated, prompting the CDC chief to describe the situation “The pandemic of the unvaccinated”.

However, Omicron may be more resistant to the vaccine than Delta, mainly for reasons related to: Spike-eiwitmutaties. B.1.1.529 (the official name for the omicron variant) contains 30 mutations near the spike protein – which is of particular concern because COVID-19-producing mRNA vaccines specifically target this protein. The spiny protein is made up of spines that extend around the central domain of SARS-CoV-2, like the spines of a sea urchin. The virus uses these bumps to get into cells in the body, like using a pickaxe to open a lock, while vaccines help an individual’s cells make proteins like those in the bumps that the immune system makes antibodies against. If the mutations alter the spike protein enough, the body’s immune system may be less able to recognize the virus because it is ready to fight off another version of the spike.

“Two vaccinations, usually both vaccines, offer virtually no protection against infection and its transmission,” said Dr. William Haseltine, founder and former CEO of Human Genome Sciences and currently chairman of the board of directors of the global health research organization Access Health International. said Salon. “Three vaccines only offer very temporary protection after three months.”

William Haseltine, founder and former CEO of Human Genome Sciences and currently president and chairman of Access Health International, noted that vaccines are apt to reduce hospitalizations and deaths, perhaps tenfold, but “they don’t. will not eliminate “. He added that the vaccines “will not protect people infected with you who are not like you from the effects of the disease, which can be very dangerous.” That’s because the vaccine is defensive, Haseltine said: it doesn’t stop the virus from entering the body, it just fights it off once inside.

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Goldstein drew attention to yet another warning about the clear benefits of pre-existing immunity (through vaccination or infection).

“While encouraging on an individual basis, this impending increase is sure to lead to infections severe enough to overwhelm already strained health resources,” noted Goldstein. “Double vaccination or a previous infection, while potentially serious, will not offer significant protection against infection and transmission of omicron. It is essential that people are vaccinated and / or fortified as soon as possible to protect themselves against an impending omicron epidemic. “

Medford seemed more cautiously optimistic in his assessment. After writing to Salon that it seems clear that the omicron variant is “more resistant than the neutralizing delta antibodies generated by first-line mRNA vaccines, and even more so with other types of vaccines,” he added that ” Fortunately, a third dose of mRNA vaccine, or the booster, largely corrects this resistance to the vaccine. He said he believed mRNA vaccines would likely remain effective, “especially with a third booster dose.” when it comes to preventing hospitalizations and deaths from serious omicron infections, although he added that this has not been officially documented.

As for the long-term ramifications of the ommicron variant in terms of the COVID-19 pandemic, two experts who spoke to Salon used the same word: “endemic.”

“The epidemic is moving to a stage where the disease is endemic,” Benjamin told Salon. “This means there will be occasional outbreaks that will be managed by contact runs, individual quarantines, targeted closings of activities or events and vaccinations / re-vaccinations of those who need them. And finally, when the disease becomes less severe / fatal, you can relax.

Medford made a similar observation.

“In the future, COVID-19 variants such as omicron and others will become an endemic feature of this disease, similar to seasonal flu,” says Medford. “Today’s data with current vaccines is promising as full vaccination (3 doses) is still effective even against new, structurally different viral variants.”

If COVID-19 truly becomes a pandemic, policymakers may need to take this into account. Looking ahead, Gandhi (who didn’t use the word “endemic” in his email) suggested that it might be wise for public health officials to base their policies on hospitalization rather than on hospitalization. infection, as the omicron variant could lead to an increase in mild cases. .

“We will likely have many more cases of Omicron globally, but – given the reduced severity of the disease – the impact of this variable (and constraints such as mask mandates and capacity limits) should depend on hospitalization statistics for COVID-19, “he noted. “If the omicron variant is transmissible but causes less severe disease, it is likely that unimmunized individuals will be found, which will result in increased immunity in that population, infecting even vaccinated individuals and further boosting their immunity – which will strengthen the ‘immunity. let us hope that the calm will make the epidemic triumph in the world. “