US supplies arms to Taiwan again, tensions with China rise

America approved an exceptionally high $620 million arms sale to Taiwan. This can be used by Taiwan to buy F16 missiles and intermediate range missiles. Now that the tension between China and America is increasing, the question is how China will react: “The major consequences will not materialize, but the fire will certainly reignite.

The arms supply is part of a “slowly rising temperature” between the two countries, says Sense Hofstede, a researcher on China-Western diplomatic relations at the Clingendael Institute. “You will see that China again sends planes to Taiwan in response, and then Taiwan receives new weapons.” In this way, the tension gradually becomes more and more threatening.

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People’s Congress

The National People’s Congress will be held in China this weekend, the question is whether there will be a response to the new arms supply from the United States. “This congress has been prepared in detail in advance, so nothing surprising will emerge.” Here, too, the gradual increase in temperature will reappear.

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Escalation

How realistic is the probability that the situation will deteriorate in the short term? According to Hofstede, this chance is very small in the short term: “This process is very gradual, and not in major shocks. We don’t have to worry until China puts in a blockade.