US Midterm Elections: Did the Democrats Peak Too Soon? | NOW

It could be in American politics. Earlier this year, a “Republican wave” was predicted in the House and Senate midterm elections. In the summer, Democrats surprisingly recovered. But maybe they peaked too soon. Just three weeks from the end – the halfway will be November 8 – Republicans seem to have the best papers again.

President Joe Biden’s popularity numbers plummeted last spring. Polls have shown Republicans have a good chance of taking control of both the House of Representatives and the majority in the Senate. The summer has become more promising for the Democratic Party.

The Supreme Court – dominated by conservative justices – decided in June to sweep away the national right to abortion. A large majority of Americans disagreed. Democrats hoped the chief justices’ controversial decision would encourage more voters to put their crosses behind the names of Democratic candidates in November. A plan to toughen abortion laws became persuasive in early August refuse in a referendum in the conservative state of Kansas.

For a time, it seemed that abortion would become the most important political issue during the halfway.

From abortion to economics

Earlier in the year, the focus was on economic issues affecting large parts of the world, such as high inflation and rising energy prices. The Biden administration has passed ambitious bills through Congress, including one strategically chosen as the Cut Inflation Act. Lower fuel prices meant voters’ wallets were less hit at the gas pump. Biden’s popularity has gradually come out of its pre-summer low.

Only three weeks before the elections, the table seems to be tilting again. Fuel prices are rising again and inflation remains a persistent problem. At the same time, the hype surrounding the abortion law has largely disappeared from the front pages. Republicans campaign primarily around the economy and crime.

Polls show that these two issues are by far the most important election issues for many Americans. Including a group that could be the deciding factor in races where it matters: independent women voters. Democratic hopes of being convinced on the abortion issue may be in vain.

Democrats appear to be losing the house

There is a lingering belief in American politics that the incumbent president’s party will lose a significant number of congressional seats in the midterm elections. It’s not always the case. For example, this did not happen in 2002 and 2014. But when it does, the loss is often so great that it sticks well in the memory. Take 2010, when Democrats had to give up 63 seats in the House of Representatives and then-President Barack Obama acknowledged that voters had given his party a “serious beating.”

If the polling trends that began in September carry over to the polls, Democrats could say goodbye to their majority in the House of Representatives this year. Even if that doesn’t turn out to be a huge defeat in 2010, any Republican dominance could make things pretty tough for the Biden administration in the final two years of its first term.

The Senate race is more exciting

In the Senate, the Democrats are more likely to keep their narrow majority. This is because only one-third of seats in the Senate are allocated, compared to all seats in the House. Additionally, Senate races are more about the personality of the candidates.

Republican candidates such as TV celebrity Dr. Mehmet Oz (Pennsylvania) and former soccer star Herschel Walker (Georgia) have the blessing of former President Donald Trump. But they are not seen as the best picks in the fight against the Democrats. “The quality of the candidates has a lot of influence on the result,” said a pessimistic Mitch McConnell, the leader of the Republican Party in the Senate, in mid-August.

It should be noted, however, that Republicans in the Senate only need a net gain of one seat to break the current Democratic majority. And while both Oz and Walker are slightly behind their rivals, those distances aren’t as great as some previously thought. So it will be exciting on November 8 anyway.