There is still enough gas this winter, but the danger is not over

A few weeks ago they were still full. But now that the first cold weather is moving across the country, the shares of the gas company Gasunie are immediately falling significantly. At the moment, gas storage is about 10 percent empty from its peak two months ago, a Gasunie spokesperson confirmed. Report on it AD. The last few days have been particularly difficult.

In ‘normal’ times no one would care. It also makes sense that stocks fall in the winter—that’s what they’re right for. When it’s cold, more is burned, so gas consumption increases (significantly). In that case, the shares should always be called.

“But now everything is on edge,” says a gas company spokesman. He refers to the energy crisis Russia has caused in Europe since its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. As the Kremlin has been cutting off gas supplies to Europe since the summer, there have been concerns about shortages this winter. Well-stocked gas storage facilities are key to getting through that winter, according to politicians and energy experts. So fluctuations are followed with skepticism.

Two months ago, politicians and energy experts cheered that stocks had filled to historic and safe levels. Now the question is, are they not leaving too soon? And will the Netherlands run into more problems. There is Gasunie Dashboard Created in which everyone can follow the day-to-day replenishment scale.

Short and sweet about the current drop in Gasunie shares: it’s comparable to cold periods in previous years, so there’s nothing to worry about, according to the spokesperson. “Even if we get an Elfstetten winter, we’ll keep our feet warm in principle.” New deliveries also keep coming in, replenishing the stock.

Consumption exploded

He says increased gas consumption is not a cause for concern at this time. That consumption may have exploded — 30 percent in two weeks. But that too is comparable to similar cold spells in previous years. In reality, it’s even slightly lower, as Dutch households and companies try to save energy, for example by lowering the thermostat. A spokesperson for the energy company Eneco confirms this: “Despite the cold weather, the savings made are still reasonable.”

Research by consultancy Wood Mackenzie published on Wednesday shows that the trend applies across Europe, although there are differences between countries. Due to “behavioural changes” or savings, average gas consumption in European countries is now 16 percent lower than in previous, similar cold periods, the consultancy reports. “Despite the cold, storages are holding up well,” the bureau said.

read more: The European energy crisis is still far away, and Putin still has many trump cards

However, that doesn’t mean there’s no reason to worry — and at Kasuni they know it. In the next winter of 2023/2024, the more stocks shrink, the more likely problems will arise. Substantial stocks must also be built for that winter. But it will be more difficult if the ‘starting point’ is lower at the start of the upcoming filling season: when the Netherlands has only a small amount of gas in storage this winter. Very long, cold winters can be problematic.

The main complicating factor is that it will be very difficult to get replacement gas for the missing Russian gas in the upcoming replenishment season. European countries have now bought large quantities of liquefied natural gas (LNG), including the US and Qatar, to replenish their stockpiles. Next year there may be formidable competitors poaching that gas: China, for example. If the Chinese economy starts growing again, that country will also need a lot of gas.

warned

The International Energy Agency has already warned of this situation. It did Again this week, when the organization’s president, Fatih Birol, met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Birol warned that Europe could face a shortfall of 30 billion cubic meters of gas in the winter of 2023/2024 – almost 10 percent of the EU’s total consumption.

Given these risks, Gasunie announced earlier this week, on behalf of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, that it will explore the possibility of further and temporary expansion of its capacity to import liquefied natural gas, including at the port. of Terneuzen. This additional capacity should “ensure that there is an adequate supply of gas next year” and avoid problems in the following winters.

That must be liquid gas. However, uncertainty remains high for now – and the outlook shows that high energy prices probably won’t go away. How long will the deficit last? A spokesman for Gasunie said the company is currently considering “three more winters”.