The United States got what it wanted: Prime Minister Rutte perfectly executes President Biden’s order to impose an export ban on ASML for its advanced lithography machines (ASML’s exports to China curbed, 9/3). Besides the fact that the cabinet can do this without the consent of the representatives of the people, I wonder if the following considerations have been (sufficiently) taken into account.
In the event of an export ban, China will join forces to develop and produce highly advanced lithography machines on its own. If China is capable of it at some point, we will no longer know what China is or is not capable of.
If China can no longer produce the high-quality chips needed for the Chinese products that the Western world depends on, what will that do to our economy? Stagnation seems to me the least of the things that happen to us.
The export ban may affect ASML to such an extent that its level and pace of investment will be significantly reduced. This has a direct impact on Western economies. And it also gives the US the opportunity to catch up, for example, with European technology. After all, the motto of Democrats and Republicans in the United States is anyway America first.
Finally, the question is whether international security is the real reason for the export ban. Impeding or disadvantaging other economies is to the advantage of the United States to become number one again. Particularly when it comes to industrialization, the United States lags far behind Europe and Asia.
Ysselsteyn
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper on March 13, 2023
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