Tensions are rising over the Nile Dam crisis

In return, Sudan recognized the state of Israel, thus blowing up Arab solidarity with the Palestinians. From Kardmin’s point of view, this seems to have been a useful diplomatic and economic move.

The economically vulnerable country is now exempt from severe sanctions related to the status of state sponsors of terrorism, for example blocking international (financial) aid. The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have now decided to consider Sudan’s application for debt relief.

Chronic poverty and underdevelopment in Sudan. 13.5% of people in Sudan live in extreme poverty (i.e. less than 90 1.90 per day). Nearly half (46.1%) of the population live on less than 20 3.20 a day.

The Sudanese civil-military interim government of Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdock was not the target of a US diplomatic offensive to appease Israel. Establishing friendly relations with Sudan, which has been officially under democratic transition since the ouster of Omar al-Bashir (2019) following ongoing popular opposition, was in line with US plans for the wider region.

Washington wants to increase its influence and military presence on the horn of Africa.

Above all, Washington wants to further enhance its influence and military presence on the horn of Africa – on the one hand its continued military efforts in Somalia and the focus on the wider war on terror against Africa. On the other hand, it generally wants to counter the actions of global rivals China and Russia on the African continent.

Trump’s successor, Joe Biden, is following the same path as Africa. Fighting Secretary of State Blingen confirmed before the Senate that the United States would “fully engage” in the horn of Africa.

Relations between the United States and Sudan have been strengthened, with Khartoum being given a very important role as a new ally in the region. This was confirmed last week by US Sudanese Ambassador Donald Booth’s visit to several countries in the region, including the Nile Dam crisis and the civil war in Tigray in northern Ethiopia.

GERD

The Nile Dam crisis has dragged on for a decade. This Easter weekend, under the auspices of the African Union, an attempt was made to resume talks between the Foreign Ministers of the three countries concerned, Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia, in Kinshasa.

Construction of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERT) on the Blue Nile began in 2011 and entered the stage last year, where a vast reservoir was to be filled with water. The main function of the power generation dam is to overcome the severe energy shortage in Ethiopia. The country hopes to be able to export energy abroad through a massive hydropower plant. According to the Ethiopian government, the construction of the GERT is also a matter of national pride and is deeply concerned about efforts to regain full sovereignty over the dam from Ethiopia.

Egypt, which is located downstream of the Nile and heavily dependent on river water, has strongly opposed the Megadam from the beginning. Cairo fears the water supply will be disrupted, leading to shortages. Negotiations were started on the guarantee of water supply, supply keys and percentages, management, etc., but these did not really progress and were broken several times.

Egypt, which relied heavily on the waters of the Nile, opposed the mega dam from the beginning.

On March 31, Egyptian President al-Sisi issued a threatening statement: “No one should take a drop of water from the Egyptian sea. Whoever wants to try, let him try. But it will disrupt the whole region. No one should dare to question our abilities, but if they want to test us, that’s all. ” Despite this muscle language, Cairo has so far drawn the diplomatic card, but this shows that tensions are running high at the moment.

In a part of the world where global warming causes the most drought, desert-like Egypt relies on the Nile for 95% of its water needs. Any interruption in the water supply would be catastrophic for more than 100 million Egyptians. It therefore wants an international brokerage and link water management agreement for the Cairo Dam.

After coming from Ethiopia, the blue Nile flows through Sudan, where it joins the White Nile. Khartoum did not like the dam project in the first place because it would be less vulnerable to potential disruptions to the water supply and could be relied upon for more and cheaper energy. Still, Sudan supports the Egyptian call for an agreement between the 3 mature countries.

Tigre

Armed conflicts in Tigray, which erupted in early November 2020, now threaten to cross the southern border with Sudan, making the Nile Dam talks more complicated and difficult. The Nile Dam file was previously concerned with a diplomatic dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia – in which Sudan supported Cairo’s position – adding that the new error between Sudan and Ethiopia on Tigre adds an extra dimension.

Sudan is already home to 70,000 Tigris refugees, and this number continues to rise. Friction on the Sudan-Ethiopian border leads to threats between the 2 countries and physical clashes between Sudanese troops and Ethiopian troops and / or militants have already occurred on several occasions. Further military expansion cannot be ruled out. In addition, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abi Ahmed, without naming names, suggested that Egypt should encourage clashes on the Ethiopian-Sudanese border – which is vehemently denied by Cairo.

The Nile Dam crisis and the Tigris conflict have increased diplomatic activity in the region. Sudan has called on its new ‘ally’ the United States not to fill the dam before it can legally sign a deal with Ethiopia.

The Nile Dam crisis and the Tigris conflict have increased diplomatic activity in the region.

Since the disappearance of Omar al-Bashir from the scene, Egypt, the region’s most important US ally, has successfully reached Sudan. Concerns about the consequences of the war in Ethiopia have brought these 2 countries even closer. Diplomatic, economic and military relations are currently underway. At the end of March, the Egyptian and Sudanese air forces conducted joint exercises.

It also reached out to Cairo, Burundi, Djibouti and Somalia to form a front against Ethiopia’s regional network. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Jordan, Oman, Kuwait and the Organization for Islamic Cooperation have recently voted in favor of Egypt’s position, resumption of Nile talks and a diplomatic solution.