storms “explode” faster into a devastating hurricane

You fall asleep expecting a big storm to approach the coast, but you’re not really worried. The next morning you wake up surrounded by debris from a destructive Category 5 hurricane. That’s what the people of the Philippines did last Sunday. past by Hurricane Noru.

As they repair the damage from the natural disaster there, another devastating hurricane is active elsewhere in the world. Ian is heading to Florida.

What hurricanes have in common is the surprising speed with which they have strengthened. Meteorologists are increasingly reporting this rapid increase. The effect is mainly due to the warming of the water in the oceans.

Ian reaches the southern tip of Florida today and continues to gain strength. It is likely to make landfall near Tampa in the coming days. A statewide emergency has been declared and some 300,000 residents are expected to be evacuated from West Florida.

Ian was one of six severe storms and hurricanes to make landfall across the world this week:

Ian went from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane (5 being the highest) in less than 72 hours. This very rapid intensification also occurred when Storm Noru near the Philippines exploded overnight from a Category 1 hurricane to a Category 5 hurricane. There is also tens of thousands of people evacuated. At least eight people were killed.

Hurricanes and tropical storms get their energy from warm seawater, says KNMI-affiliate hurricane expert Rein Haarsma. Thus, the warmer the ocean, the more intense the hurricane.

La Niña also plays a role. Due to this natural phenomenon, it is slightly cooler over part of the Pacific Ocean around the equator. As a result, the wind blows less strongly over the Atlantic Ocean at high altitudes. And – paradoxically – precisely because of this reduced “wind shear”, hurricanes can develop better because they are not destroyed at an early stage.

Because La Niña is quite active this year, more hurricanes were expected this year, but so far it hasn’t been too severe, Haarsma says. “But now they’re here, almost like they’re catching up.”

A remarkable number of storms and hurricanes have caused mass evacuations and damage in recent days:

It is quite rare for several of these storms to develop into a very powerful hurricane within a week. According to , this rapid intensification has also researchers in meteorology and climatology in the United States related to climate change. There are more frequent storms that very quickly turn into a very powerful hurricane with huge wind speeds and extreme rainfall.

Monsoon rains have also become more intense due to climate change, for example causing large parts of Pakistan to flood this year. It will happen more often, thinks Haarsma. “These heavy monsoon rains and hurricanes all have individual causes,” he says. “But you see they happen more often. You can’t attribute an individual storm to climate change, but you can say, for example, that something like this happens once every five years instead of once. times every 100 years.”

Although severe storms are now also developing further north in the Atlantic Ocean due to warming sea water and sometimes reach hurricane force, they do not yet reach mainland Europe, with the exception of doctors. These are hurricane-like storms that originate in the Mediterranean Sea. “You sometimes see a hurricane developing in the Azores that is getting closer,” says Haarsma. “And in 2017 the Irish coast was hit by Hurricane Ophelia. You also see that we are dealing with hurricane remnants over Europe more often.”

If the models are correct and the warming of the sea water continues, it is theoretically possible that in the future a hurricane will reach the Dutch coast from the Azores via the English Channel. “But most of it will hit the British Isles first and if it does it will be at most a lowest category hurricane.”