Russia’s new commander in Ukraine looks set to scale up

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  Graafian iris

  Russia Correspondent

Once again, the cards are reshuffled at the Russian Defense Ministry: Valeri Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian army, has been appointed as the new commander of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine. It paid off RIA Novosti based on sources within the Russian Defense Ministry. Gerasimov replaces General Sergei Soerovikin, who would be his deputy.

This is the umpteenth change in the leadership of the army in a short time; Soerovikin had been appointed commander of the “special operation” October 8. It was the day the bridge between Russia and Crimea suffered an explosion was badly damaged. Under Serovikin’s leadership, Russia then carried out the largest missile strikes since the start of the “special operation” on February 24. Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has also become a target.

Soerovikin is known as “General Armageddon” or the general who sets the world on fire. The Kremlin hoped to reform the army with Soerovikin and achieve more success in Ukraine. Soerovikin, according to military analysts, slowly succeeded in becoming better organized and instilling more discipline in the army, but he is also associated with withdrawal Russian troops from Kherson in October, one of Putin’s biggest defeats in the past year.

Gerasimov is known as an intelligent and respected general. Russia hopes to reverse the trend with him. In a statement, the Russian Defense Ministry said that “improvement of the leadership of the special military operation” is necessary due to the increase in tasks and objectives that the Russian army is trying to achieve, and that there is a need to improve coordination between army units. and better control of the armed forces.

A number of military bloggers say that to win you have to have someone at the top who connects all the “structures”. For example, military blogger Shurigin writes on Telegram that there are too many separate operations: the Chechen army is fighting under the leadership of Ramzan Kadyrov, the Wagnerian mercenary army under the leadership of Evgeny Prigozhin, and the army official Russian fights under the leadership of Surovikin.

“Now all types of Russian Armed Forces, from Air Force and GROE (Intelligence) to Navy and Ukrainian Armed Forces, are under one and the same person – Gerasimov. Such a union of forces is unprecedented” , writes Shurigin.

Gerasimov, who was thus already the highest-ranking Russian soldier under the Ministry of Defense, will gain even more power as commander-in-chief of the “special operation” against Ukraine and will now command all Russian armed forces. ; both in Russia and Ukraine. The army, air force and intelligence services – all under the command of one and the same man. The Ministry of Defense hopes this will make the special operation “more efficient”.

But it also seems to indicate mainly a move upmarket. It’s still unclear what that will look like in practice, but bloggers and military analysts expect to see another full-scale offensive under Gerasimov soon.

Among ordinary Russians, this raises a lot of questions. For example, people wonder if this automatically means that the entire Russian army will be deployed in the fighting in Ukraine. Or that a new round of mobilization could be announced under Gerasimov.

Rumors of mobilization have been floating in the air for weeks. For example, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said on December 31 that “the Russian authorities will close the borders to men, declare martial law and launch a new wave of mobilization.” The Kremlin denies it, but the appointment of a new general fuels such fears. .

It is clear, however, that Gerasimov’s appointment fits in with the military goals of Defense Minister Shoygu and President Putin announced in December: to intensify the “special operation” through reforms in the army. Putin’s New Year’s speech also made it clear that there is no turning back for him: he called on the Russian people to prepare for “heavy sacrifices and a long struggle”. Increasingly tough intervention and scaling up will therefore remain the line that Russia is following for now.