Pakistan’s catastrophic rainfall is due to climate change

The extreme rainfall that had catastrophic effects on Pakistan last summer is likely linked to climate change. This is the conclusion of 26 climatologists connected to the international network Global Weather Allocation (WWA). As global temperatures have risen, rainfall in the South Asian country has intensified, according to the study.

Scientists base this discovery on climate models and meteorological data. They show that the current global temperature rise of 1.2 degrees has led to a 75% increase in rainfall in the worst affected southern provinces of Sindh and Balochistan on the days of the worst storms. The researchers point out that there are still large uncertainties about the exact increase.

The findings are in line with research by the United Nations climate expert group, the IPCC. At the end of June, the UN was already talking about an “unprecedented climatic disaster” in Pakistan, which was faced with bad weather in June, July and August. At least 1,300 people died, 1.7 million homes were destroyed or damaged, as well as more than 1,400 health facilities. 6,700 kilometers of the road network suffered heavy damage. Sindh and Baluchistan respectively recorded seven and eight times more rain than usual in August.

Over a million homes in Pakistan have been damaged or completely destroyed, such as in Ratodero:

WWA also published a study in May on the link between extreme weather events and climate change in Pakistan. Next, the focus was on the prolonged heat waves that hit Pakistan before the start of the monsoon (and therefore extreme rainfall) season in June. Such heat waves have become 30 times more likely due to global warming than they were 120 years ago, when the Earth had not yet warmed by 1.2 degrees. Noted researchers of the time.

This new research focuses on precipitation and contributes to scientists’ research into the causes of extreme weather events. “The more we conduct these studies, the clearer the picture becomes,” says Sjoukje Philip, who is involved with the WWA network as a researcher at KNMI.

The researchers also looked at models that predict what will happen if warming reaches 2 degrees. Then the rainfall in Pakistan will likely become even more extreme, according to the research report. “A logical conclusion,” says Philip. “As the atmosphere warms, it traps more moisture, causing more extreme rainfall.”

This is why, according to Philip, it is necessary for Pakistan to adapt to these new extreme rainfall events. “The research is not just looking at climate and weather, but also how it affects people.” Among other things, Philip points to the crops that failed due to the prolonged heat and the millions of people who were affected by the storm in other ways.

Pakistan is still working hard to drain water from flooded areas. The government is using “all possible technical means” for this, according to Pakistani Climate Minister Sherry Rehman.