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Scientists have identified the risks of global warming for 25,000 marine animals. They assessed the risks to all kinds of marine life, from plankton to whales, with habitats ranging from the tropics to the poles.
The climate risk index assesses the adaptability and physical characteristics of animals under two scenarios: if greenhouse gas emissions increase further, or if emissions now decrease.
If emissions increase, the average temperature of the oceans could have increased by 3 to 5 degrees by 2100. In this case, there will be marine animals that will be at additional risk in 85% of their natural habitat, the researchers conclude. 87% of animals therefore run a “high” or “critical” climatic risk. We do not know what the exact consequences are.
Researchers have found that predators such as sharks and tuna are at greater risk than species lower in the food chain. Predators maintain the balance of the marine ecosystem, for example because they eat the overpopulation of other marine animals.
Aquatic animals are particularly at risk in (sub)tropical ecosystems. These are areas close to the equator. This also includes the coral reefs on the coast.
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If the water temperature increases to a limited extent, the risks decrease significantly
In the scenario where more greenhouse gases are emitted, humanity will also have to deal with the consequences of a changing fish population. According to the study, cod and lobster are high risk. These species live in waters close to low-income countries, where the population is economically more dependent on fishing.
In the other scenario, the scientists took as their starting point the agreements of the Paris climate agreement. The average temperature of the oceans would then have increased by 1 to 2 degrees by 2100. In this case, the risk for almost all marine life (98.2%) would be reduced or even completely eliminated.
Scientists from countries such as Canada, Germany and the Philippines participated in the research. With the climate risk index, researchers hope to contribute to solutions for the conservation of marine animals.
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