‘Gain of the Republic has direct consequences for Europe’

The polls are open for key midterm elections in the US, in which Republicans are more likely to win. With no control in the House of Representatives and Senate, incumbent President Joe Biden has had a tough few years. BNR’s foreign commentator Bernard Hummelberg expects the consequences for Europe to be substantial.

While it is rare for an incumbent president to be impeached during midterm elections, this battle for control in the ‘House’ and Senate has degenerated into a neck-and-neck race. The Democratic lead almost evaporated after a strong catch-up race from Republicans. Still, we shouldn’t look too closely at polls, says American correspondent John Postma. ‘It’s actually very close, and in principle it could go in any direction.’

Also Read | When will we know who won the by-election?

At the start of the campaign, abortion was a key issue for these elections. However, inflation and the overall economy have taken up the debate. “Voters generally have more faith in Democrats when it comes to the economy,” says Postma. “But there is a lot of frustration about the increased costs of both groceries and fuel prices, which are very important to Americans.”

Trump’s shadow

Although he is not running in this election, former President Donald Trump is casting a shadow in these midterms. He announced yesterday that he will make a ‘very important announcement’ on November 15. According to Hummelburg, it is inevitable that he will announce his candidacy in the 2024 presidential election. ‘He works for it for a while, but today he will check the result. If the Republican Party wins, he’ll say it’s because of him.

Trump’s shadow in this election is far away, says Hummelberg. ‘You also see national politicians on TV during regional and provincial elections in the Netherlands. Obviously, this election is about congressional power, but Joe Biden and Donald Trump are running this fight. So the increasingly widespread skepticism about Trump’s influence, the results of previous presidential elections, and the results of this round can be seen as key. “That’s really because of Trump’s influence,” Hummelburg says. Within the Republican Party, there is a growing group of politicians who believe previous elections were rigged.

Also Read | Biden: American democracy is under pressure

Winged lamb

Postma says incumbent President Joe Biden will have tough years ahead if the Democrats lose. Republicans will block all Democratic proposals. That means the abortion law will not pass. Republicans will come with a flood of investigations into Biden and his son Hunter.

This is not the first time a sitting president has been punished by voters. The same thing happened to Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. They lost power in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Because if we lose power in both places, what is left is foreign policy and the presidential decree.’ However, both presidents were re-elected for a second term, Hummelberg insists. Despite that slap in the face, both were given a second term by voters. So the President who has no power in Parliament cannot be lost immediately.’

Live Blog | Today is the US midterm elections. Follow this live blog for latest news

European effects

While these midterm elections appear to be a domestic affair, Bernard Hummelberg believes the effects of Republican victories will be felt in Europe. You might expect Republicans to take a more critical view of military support for Ukraine. And, under Trump, the alliance between the US and Europe is already fraying. That was restored under Biden, but with several Republicans in power, things are about to start creaking again.