Erdogan’s new opponent is called Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu

The next Turkish presidential election will be a battle between current President Erdogan and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Kılıçdaroğlu has been nominated by six opposition parties as a joint presidential candidate, according to Turkish correspondent Joost Lagendijk he has a good chance, but the 74-year-old former official lacks much charisma.

Kılıçdaroğlu (pronounced: kie-lietsj-da-roo-gloe, ed.) has been involved in Turkish politics for quite some time now. The 74-year-old former senior civil servant has been the leader of the CHP, the largest opposition party in parliament, since 2010. And, to be honest, he kind of looks like it. So not a lot of charisma,” says Lagendijk, who however mentions two major merits.

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confront

For example, Kılıçdaroğlu gave the “face” of the CHP. It was in a way Lagendijk “a somewhat strictly secular status quo party”, which he transformed into a much more modern centre-left social-democratic party. “And his second greatest achievement is that he is the architect of coalitions with other parties against Erdogan.”

This coalition formation proved successful in the 2019 local elections in Istanbul and Ankara. According to Lagendijk, this year’s presidential elections should be “the crowning glory”, with Kılıçdaroğlu wanting to return Turkey to a parliamentary democracy instead of an authoritarian presidential system.

Promising

According to Lagendijk, there are two reasons why Kılıçdaroğlu has good chances against Erdogan. “This election in May will really be a referendum on Erdogan. Do you think it should continue or not after twenty years? Moreover, according to Lagendijk, the charisma of the opposing candidate will be less important “because a lot of people will vote, finally, for everything, everything except for Erdogan”.

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A second reason is formed by the large Kurdish minority in Turkey, about 12% of the electorate. The Kurds will have a deciding vote on who will be the next president and Kılıçdaroğlu has as many good cards as Erdogan has bad.

Not only is Kılıçdaroğlu himself of Kurdish descent, but he has also made political overtures to the Kurdish minority in the past. This contrasts with Erdogan, who has pursued a strong anti-Kurdish policy in recent years and understandably enjoys little popularity among Kurds.

Earthquake

But what will really color the election strongly is the earthquake, and in particular the rescue operation which started so slowly. Where, according to Lagendijk, the Turkish government wants to blame rogue contractors, the opposition points to the fact that Erdogan himself has granted a building amnesty on several occasions in the past so that houses that cannot withstand earthquakes of land are finally approved.

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Guilt and excuses

According to Lagendijk, which narrative becomes dominant in the campaign will become an important factor in the election. Erdogan himself also apologized and admitted some guilt that it all started so slowly. “It’s exceptional for Erdogan.”

It will be an exciting election, believes Lagendijk. “All the opinion polls show that Erdogan is still a bit stuck at around 40, 45%. And now that the Table of Six (the nickname for the common opposition parties, editor’s note) has united behind a candidate as well acceptable to the Kurds, there is a good chance that they will get more than 50% in these presidential elections.’