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The likelihood of such a cold winter that an Elfstedentocht is possible has roughly halved since the turn of the twentieth century. The Dutch Meteorological Institute calculated this.
Due to climate change, the possibility of a “circuit tour” on the natural ice of Friesland will only decrease in the future. “To what extent this depends on the continuation of global warming”, according to the institute.
It will be exactly 25 years on Tuesday that the last Elfstedentocht was held. Although the climate is increasingly unfavorable, according to the KNMI, statistically speaking, travel should still be possible about once every twelve years.
At the turn of the last century, conditions were still right about once every five years. Experts only look at the cold which is at least necessary for an Eleven Cities Tour. Typically, they maintain that it should be colder than -4.2 degrees Celsius over 15 days in De Bilt.
In reality, more factors matter. For example, the ice should be thick enough for the number of participants. It can also happen for local reasons that the ice is not so strong everywhere. Strong winds and snow are unfavorable.
According to KNMI, if global warming remains limited to 2 degrees, an Eleven Cities Tour can be organized on average once every 20 years. “However, if we do not succeed in curbing global warming, there will only be one or two possible trips before the odds get very low by the middle of this century,” warn climate scientists from there. ‘institute.
According to experts, the fact that the Netherlands have been waiting for the next edition for a quarter of a century is “bad luck”. “The probability of a 25-year period without suitable weather in Elfsteden is only 7%,” they write.
Due to climate change, the possibility of a “circuit tour” on the natural ice of Friesland will only decrease in the future. “How much depends on the continuation of global warming”, according to the institute. It will be exactly 25 years on Tuesday since the last Elfstedentocht took place. Although the climate is increasingly unfavorable, according to the KNMI, statistically speaking, travel should still be possible about once every twelve years. At the turn of the last century, conditions were still right about once every five years. Experts only look at the cold which is at least necessary for an Eleven Cities Tour. Typically, they maintain that it should be colder than -4.2 degrees Celsius over 15 days in De Bilt. In reality, more factors matter. For example, the ice should be thick enough for the number of participants. It can also happen for local reasons that the ice is not so strong everywhere. Strong winds and snow are unfavorable. According to KNMI, if global warming remains limited to 2 degrees, an Eleven Cities Tour can be organized on average once every 20 years. “However, if we do not succeed in curbing global warming, there will only be one or two possible trips before the odds get very low by the middle of this century,” warn climate scientists from there. ‘institute. According to experts, the fact that the Netherlands have been waiting for the next edition for a quarter of a century is “bad luck”. “The probability of a 25-year period without suitable weather in Elfsteden is only 7%,” they write.
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