Devastating El Niño damages trillions of euros. And we may have to deal with it again this year

El Niño and its cooler sister, La Niña, alternate every few years. A ‘Super El Nino’ ​​is expected to occur this year. This warm Gulf Stream has enormous consequences for climate, nature, and society. El Niño’s economic damage runs into the trillions.

The flow of unusually warm ocean water around the equator, stretching from South America to Asia, causes weather changes around the world, although here in the Netherlands we notice relatively little of it. America and certainly the tropical countries around the Pacific Ocean are most affected. For example, the West Coast of the United States is experiencing warm, wet winters, and floods and severe droughts are occurring around the world. Fish populations are also declining, and tropical diseases are emerging. In general, El Niño causes global warming. This is a big problem for many countries. American researchers therefore assessed the effect of repetition El Niño Southern OscillationImpact on tropical developing countries and the global economy as a whole (ENSO).

astronomical quantities
The effects of the ENSO effect are enormous and, in the case of ‘Super El Niño’ such as 1972-1973, 1982-1983 and 1997-1998, persist for many years. The costs run into the trillions of euros and are therefore much higher than previously thought. A new study to economic activity in the world after severe El Niños in the early 1980s and late 1990s. A ‘continuous pattern’ of sluggish economic growth emerged over the next five years. This will cost the global economy $4100 billion and $5700 billion respectively. Most of these astronomical amounts are accounted for by the poorest countries in the tropics. Even more extreme: economic losses for the entire 21st century are about $84,000 billion. This measure is independent of the economic effects of global warming caused by greenhouse gases.

Many years
“What we can say with certainty is that economies won’t recover after El Nino,” said lead researcher Christopher Callahan. Dartmouth College. “Where the effects of the natural event hit hard, a persistent pattern of growth retardation can be seen, lasting at least five years. The whole picture has not been examined. This requires that all ‘lost’ growth be included, not just the damage caused during the months when El Niño is truly destructive.”

“It’s good that people are paying attention to climate change and the costs it will cause. But if you don’t include the devastating effect of El Niño, you’re still underestimating the problem and the costs of global warming,” said US researcher Justin Mankin. “Our well-being depends on the global economy, and the economy is linked back to the climate. If you’re asking how much climate change costs, you can start by calculating the ENSO damage. We show that the variability of El Niño and La Nina costs a lot and causes years of stagnant economic growth. That’s why we Costs have to be adjusted upwards significantly.

The poor lose the most
After the ‘Super El Nino’ ​​of 1982-1983, US gross domestic product (GDP) fell by about 3 percent over the five years due to the natural phenomenon. The same thing happened between 1997-1998 and 2003. For tropical countries like Peru and Indonesia, the consequences were even greater: their economic growth fell by more than 10 percent in 1997-1998 due to the effects of the warm Gulf Stream. “El Nino further widens the gaps between rich and poor already created by climate change. Those with the least resilience are hit the hardest,” Mankin said.

Sad post
The probability of another El Niño beginning in late summer is estimated at 80 percent. “Neither has there been a time when ocean temperatures have been this high. The last El Nino was in 2016 and helped put that year in the books as the warmest ever. Since then, global warming has only accelerated. Additionally, the world is now coming out of an extended La Nina period,” says Callahan. Two The phases also usually reinforce each other, so El Niño hits hard.

“This year looks like a real ‘Super El Niño’. If it happens, it will undoubtedly have a huge economic impact. Tropical countries will be affected for up to ten years. El Niño is going to cause trillions of dollars of damage again. I wouldn’t be surprised if another tragic record is broken,” he said. Callahan concludes.