Nearly 63% of the 428,000 Republicans registered in the county have so far voted, while 56% of the county’s 634,000 registered Democrats have voted, according to state data. About 225,000 people without party affiliation have already voted in the district.
Although more Democrats voted than Republicans in Miami-Tate, Democrats view the district as a region that needs to win a landslide victory to offset voting in the state’s majority red areas of former Vice President Joe Biden.
Steve Shale, a senior Democratic Florida strategist who runs the pro-Biden PAC, said, “I would love to see Tate County go up this weekend, and I would be fine if I did.”
But Shale added that black voters in the county tend to vote in person closer to election day, so he expects turnout to increase over the coming weekend. He said Democrats have a strong vote in neighboring Broward County.
State data show that 61% of Democrats registered in Forward have so far voted.
Democratic data adviser Matt Ispel said he sees a “lagging factor” among Democratic Hispanic voters in Miami Dat.
“I do not have a good answer as to why that might be, but it is certainly a factor of great concern to Democrats,” Ispel said.
Like Shelley, Isbell said he expects black voter turnout to increase in the coming days, but with the dynamics of this election, the epidemic and the increase in mail by ballot, it is difficult to compare with previous election cycles and predictions.
Steve Simeonidis, leader of the Miami-Tate Democrats, said he was not worried. “From where we are sitting now we are very confident and very comfortable. We have to continue to work to keep things going, but we are in a good place.”
CNN’s Carolyn Kelly contributed to the report.