Analysis goes to New Zealand, recession and election, practice on trade with China

With what will be a tight election and the economy already technically in recession, analysts say Hipkins wants to emerge from the shadow of prominent former leader Jacinda Ardern and project herself as someone who can take over the country for another three years. To take the lead.

Among other things, Hipkins’ focus is on reassuring voters that Labor is the party to bring back prosperity – and avoiding conflicts with the country’s biggest trading partner, which could hurt New Zealand’s exports.

“It’s a big return for Hipkins, who is raising his name as the new prime minister in an election year,” said Robert Ison, professor of strategic studies at the University of Victoria.

“Hipkins got into everything that was controversial. We came back to a period where New Zealand acknowledged its differences with China on some important issues without really naming them.”

New Zealand has long been seen as the most aligned country with China in the Five Eyes security group, which includes Australia, the United States, Britain and Canada.

But the country’s foreign minister, Nanaya Mahuda, and Ardern, in recent meetings with their counterparts, pointed to the situation in Xinjiang and the erosion of democracy in Hong Kong, while expressing concern over militarization in the Pacific and tensions in the Taiwan Strait. .

None of these issues were mentioned in a statement issued following Hipkins’ meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

“The Hipkins visit certainly puts a tick in China’s international legal box and Beijing has benefited at least as much from the Hipkins visit as New Zealand’s exporters,” said Victoria University’s Ison.

New Zealand exporters were prominent in the visit, with representatives from 29 companies traveling to China with the Prime Minister.

Business is not a traditional Labor constituency, but Hipkins has been targeting success in the sector since taking office – he met with business leaders in Auckland for his first full day of work in January.

“I feel like this is an important aspect of domestic politics in an election year, and Hipkins wants to be seen as a good steward of the China relationship,” said David Gabby, director of the Center for Strategic Studies at the University of Victoria. University.

According to the most recent polls at the end of May, the opposition National and Law Alliance is ahead of a coalition of Labor and the Greens. However, no coalition got absolute majority.

Derek J., a senior security analyst at the RAND Corp. in the United States. Grossman said it was unlikely to have a negative impact on New Zealand’s relationship with other trade-focused partners as many countries were aware of Wellington’s delicate balance. is playing

“Furthermore, as the Biden administration has shown with India regarding its relations with Russia, Washington is willing to tolerate many behaviors that run counter to its interests, or even values, as long as the partners agree to work together on an Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China.”