“A kind of Marshall Plan to the power of ten”

Since the early 1990s, the United Nations Climate Panel (IPCC) has been mapping global warming with thousands of scientists. These enormous efforts have made climate change the most scientific problem we know.

But reality has now caught up with science, as the impact and risks of global warming are manifesting faster and more intensely than early models and reports predicted. In 2013, the IPCC had to add a new color to its graphs. Red was no longer sufficient to indicate increasing risks, so purple was added.

Today, the Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report is on the table. It is the culmination of a cycle of six reports published by the IPCC since 2016. Previous publications have dealt with global warming itself, its impact and its solutions. In the synthesis report, all these topics are interrelated.

In summary, the sixth round of research that the IPCC is about to complete concludes that “the possibility of securing a viable future for all is fading faster and faster”, that “rapid and profound transitions are needed in all sectors and systems” and that “the choices and actions we implement in this decade have an impact now and for thousands of years”. If we want to keep warming below one and a half degrees, as agreed in the Paris climate agreement, emissions must be halved by 2030.

‘last call’

But in the meantime, emissions continue to rise.

“This report is the last call of the IPCC because the next reports are not expected before 2030. By then, we will already know whether or not the world has succeeded in drastically reducing emissions in time,” says Kaisa Kosonen. She followed the production of the latest Greenpeace report in Interlaken, Switzerland.

There, the scientists put the final touches to the texts. For the Summary for Policymakers, they did so with the delegations of the signatory countries of the United Nations Climate Convention. Countries must approve verbatim, with scientists verifying that the content remains intact.

“This means that you need a week to read twenty pages”, explains climatologist Philippe Huybrechts (VUB), author at the IPCC. But the advantage is that the governments that have given their approval do not subsequently deny what she says. This is important, because the summary is the basis for the upcoming climate talks in November in Dubai.

The content of the summary report is therefore already known because it is the scientific consensus of the previous reports. “But because so many years have passed, it’s good that the world has a condensed version in 2023,” Kosonen says.

For example, reference will most likely be made to the finding that the impact and effects of warming are “faster, more widespread and more intense” than previously predicted. And that the world is heading towards “irrevocable” levels of warming whose devastating impact very quickly becomes inevitable. We are moving towards a warmer world of about three degrees. This would mean, among other things, that we would irrevocably lose the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. Even a more favorable scenario of 1.9 degrees of warming means, among other things, that by 2100 half of humanity will be exposed to life-threatening climatic conditions due to extreme heat and humidity.

Inequality

The IPCC has also revealed the great inequality of this cycle of research. For example, mortality due to climate extremes between 2010 and 2020 was 15 times higher in vulnerable regions than in less vulnerable regions. Meanwhile, only ten percent of the wealthiest households are responsible for three-quarters of emissions.

The synthesis report should put more emphasis on the future, on what we can still do to avoid the worst. “Science shows that today more than ever we have all the methods to limit emissions. These resources, such as renewable energy, are now much cheaper than expected,” says Kosonen.

This is one of the reasons why the IPCC says it is still possible to stay below one and a half degrees, although this is already considered by some to be a thing of the past. In some models, we exceed this degree and a half, to then fall back.

The main solutions are much more solar and wind energy, the protection and restoration of forests and other ecosystems, energy efficiency and climate-friendly food production. The rapid elimination of fossil fuels is also essential.

“These reports have become increasingly disturbing over the years,” says Joeri Thijs of Greenpeace. “But the IPCC keeps repeating that in theory we still have the resources to reverse the trend in time and the reports also provide very scientifically sound evidence. toolbox with the best approach to keep the planet livable. It would look like a huge global operation, a gigantic intensification of green efforts with which we have fortunately already taken steps forward, a sort of Marshall Plan to the power of ten.