Escalation or diversionary tactics? Putin sees nuclear weapons differently from the West

British Defense Secretary Wallace sees the order primarily as a show of force. “We must not forget that this is a big attempt to divert attention from his problems in Ukraine. That’s why he uses words like this in the media.”

Osinga points out, however, that Russia thinks completely differently about the use of nuclear weapons. “The West sees them as weapons of deterrence, which you want to maintain the status quo with. In Russian doctrine, they can also be used as battlefield weapons. You don’t want to think about that scenario, but it plays a role.”

This now increases the risk of unintended escalations, warns Van Hooft. “I wouldn’t say the odds are high. But when it comes to nuclear weapons, anything that increases the odds makes me nervous.”

Do not rush

According to Osinga, whether the genie can return to the bottle depends on whether Putin manages to get out of the conflict. “Putin will not allow his troops to return to Moscow empty-handed. We know authoritarian leaders are not good at dealing with loss of status.”

According to Van Hooft, the West should remain calm and above all not overplay their hand. “It is important to make sure there is a way out for Putin. In recent days you have heard voices calling for a change of power in Moscow, but you should not threaten someone who does this to secure his own diet.”

“We must not get nervous, but also not humiliate Putin further.”