40% of people in the world are severely affected

About 40 percent of the earth’s land has suffered significant degradation due to poor management and misuse of soil, water and biodiversity. It directly affects half of the world’s population. If nothing changes, the situation will get worse, according to the United Nations.

This warning is contained in the report Global Country Outlook 2 With verse Land restoration for recovery and resilience, Was released last week under the auspices of the United Nations Conference on Desertification (UNCCD). This publication, which has been in operation for five years, provides a comprehensive overview of current landslides and outlines three scenarios for the future (see box below).

If the current pace continues it will have tremendous consequences. Then, by 2050, an additional 16 million square kilometers of land will be affected, roughly the size of South America.

Additional risk to vulnerable groups
More than 70 percent of the land area is not in its natural state due to human activities. More than half of these – almost 40 percent – have deteriorated significantly. This is partly the result of agriculture, mining, urbanization, infrastructure construction and the sustainable use of land and water.

This landslide threatens half of the world economy – about $ 44 trillion a year – and affects vulnerable groups such as small farmers, women, youth and indigenous peoples. For example, 2.3 billion people live in countries experiencing water stress, while between 1998 and 2017 the drought directly affected at least 1.5 billion people. At present, half of the world’s population is at risk of severe water shortages by 2020.

According to UNCCD Secretary Ibrahim Tia, modern agriculture in particular has changed the face of the planet. “We urgently need to think about our global diets, which are responsible for 80 percent of deforestation and 70 percent of freshwater use, and are the biggest cause of biodiversity loss on land.

Significant potential for land reclamation
An important part of the report is the study conducted by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PPL), the results of which were published in June 2021. This shows the potential for land recovery. The BPL study shows that measures for natural restoration and sustainable land management could reclaim 5.2 billion hectares (or 52 million square kilometers) worldwide. Countries have stated their ambition to reclaim one billion hectares of land by 2030, the size of China or the United States.

According to a UNCCD release, this will require $ 1.6 trillion over the current decade. This is said to be part of the $ 700 billion a year that goes to “perverse” subsidies for fossil fuels and agriculture. The report identifies hundreds of practical ways to reclaim land and ecosystems. A small selection: terrace and edge farming, protection and restoration of catchment areas and rainwater harvesting and storage.

Low cost of large scale land restoration investment
An example of the current recovery effort is the large green wall being built across Africa. It covers a vast area of ​​about 8,000 km of trees in the Sahel and the Sahara. According to the report, every dollar invested in overcoming degraded land yields benefits ranging from $ 7 to $ 30.

Tiao says: “Investing in large-scale land reclamation is a powerful, cost-effective tool to combat desertification, soil erosion and loss of agricultural productivity. It is intended to make new agreements on this during the World Summit, which will take place from May 9 to 20 in Abidjan, the capital of Ivory Coast.

Three views until 2050

1) Business as usual
According to the UNCCD report, this is not a viable path. This could lead to further land degradation (16 million square kilometers), reduced productivity of vegetation on a portion of land for agriculture and livestock, further loss of natural areas and significant additional CO emissions.₂⁇

2) Recovery
It considers the reclamation of approximately 5 billion hectares (35 per cent of global land area) through activities such as agroforestry, grazing management and natural regeneration. Then in most developing countries crop yields increase by 5 to 10 percent. In addition, soil retention capacity of rainfed fields will increase by 4 percent. Biodiversity is constantly declining, but at a slower rate than in the first scenario.

3) Recovery and protection
Land reclamation activities are complemented by conservation measures of areas critical to biodiversity, water management and conservation of soil and carbon reserves. It provides an additional 4 million square kilometers of natural reserves. One-third of biodiversity loss is prevented by trade ‘as usual’.

More info
Global Country Outlook Report2
Summary for Policymakers
Interpretation of UNCCD
Hoo₂O Current: Research PBL