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A new world heat record is in the air. This will almost certainly happen in 2024. And there is a growing chance that 2023 will also be record high. This is what American climatologists tell NU.nl, based on the latest temperature measurements.
Halfway through the year, the two largest American climate institutes took stock on Thursday: 2023 is now underway place 3 warmest years. But there is a race to catch up, and the devil is probably in the line.
NOAA And Nasa using, among other things, a global network of satellite measurements. They not only measure the temperature above the land, but also above the oceans.
These measurements show that the average temperature on earth is increasing. About 0.2 degrees are added every ten years. The cause is the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases.
El Niño: a peak that adds to the increase due to CO2
But there are also peaks and valleys on the line. Somewhat cooler years and years that still stand out. These very hot years often follow an El Niño. Second, the water in the Pacific Ocean is warmer than normal and the atmosphere is less able to dissipate accumulated greenhouse heat.
By early May, it was clear that El Niño was approaching. NASA climate research manager Gavin Schmidt later told NU.nl that it was almost certain this would lead to a new world record for heat in 2024, with a one in three chance of that record being set. also beaten in 2023.
We are two months later. El Niño is now a fact and, according to the latest forecasts, will continue until the spring of 2024. Also new are temperature measurements from June. NOAA and NASA released their analyzes on Thursday.
Conclusion: Not only in the Netherlands, but also worldwide, June was by far the warmest June ever measured. And there seems to be more at play than the steady warming trend and El Niño. For example, the water in the North Atlantic Ocean is exceptionally warm and there is very little sea ice around Antarctica.
El Niño now means record high temperatures
This is a reason for Schmidt to tighten his forecast from two months ago. “The risk has gone to about 50%. This is due to the June measurements and the increase in El Niño.
Another authoritative climatologist, Michael Mann, believes that the chance is considerably higher. “I think it’s almost certain that 2023 will bring record global temperature.”
Mann has published research in a scientific journal Nature, to the combined effect of El Niño and climate change on temperature. The last time this coincided was in 2016 – so far the world’s hottest year on record.
“The bottom line is that it’s now almost certain that global temperature records will be broken whenever we have another El Nino,” Mann says. According to him, the underlying warming will continue as long as we continue to burn fossil fuels on a large scale.
A possible temperature record in 2023 will not last long. Due to the delayed effects of El Niño, it already seems certain that 2024 will be even warmer around the world.
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